Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Martial Arts Wandering


The study of martial arts should ideally be done under the tutelage of a single qualified master. However, in today's modern society people move, schools close, and students get bored.
A lifelong student of martial arts may need to transition to several different martial arts programs in their lifetime. This can be incredibly difficult if you study a somewhat obscure martial art like hapkido. There are very few hapkido schools, so finding one when you move is a challenge. This is why tae kwon do is a good martial art to study if you plan to move a lot. No martial art is more pervasive in America today. The two largest factions of tae kwon do are the World Taekwondo Federation and the International Taekwon-do Federation. Their systems are somewhat standardized. If you study WTF or ITF tae kwon do, you should be able to find another school teaching pretty much the same way in another city. Your rank will also transfer to the new school. This allows you to continue your studies unabated.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Mess in Myanmar

by Kent Ninomiya

We are just now realizing the epic scale of the disaster in Myanmar. A U.S. diplomat in Myanmar now says up to 100,000 people may have been killed by the devastating cyclone. About one million people are now homeless. Much of the country is under water and bodies float everywhere. There is stiff competition for what little food and fresh water is left. Disease and starvation will have a serious secondary impact. To make matters worse, much worse, is the military junta that runs the country with an iron fist. They are paranoid of outsiders and restrict the access of foreign officials and aid groups that are struggling to deliver relief goods. However, the scale of this disaster may force Myanmar's leaders to compromise. State television in Myanmar now says the government would accept aid from any country and that help had arrived Wednesday from Japan, Bangladesh, Laos, Thailand, China, India and Singapore. Could this be the beginning of real change for Myanmar? Could a major disaster be just what was needed to open up the government and perhaps spur a change in leadership? We shall see. One thing is sure. Myanmar will need a lot of rebuilding, and if their government allows it, foreign aid will pour in. Keep an eye on Myanmar.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Asia Opportunites and Caution

by Kent Ninomiya

Right now, the investment climate in Asia looks pretty good. The markets in the USA and Europe may have declined all they are going to in the near future. At the same time three of the best stock markets in Asia, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore appear to be pretty close to bottoming out. Talk now is that this bear market may have been far less scary than previous believed. Still, thing could change at any time so stay tuned.

In general, the economies of Asia are relatively stable compared to the free fall we have experienced here in the United States. That is not to say there aren't dangers investing in Asia. You just need to be smart about it.

Standard & Poor's released a report today saying "the general credit outlook for Asia's sovereigns is still predominantly stable in the current financial and economic crisis but risks loom as a few governments may lack prudence in addressing increased inflationary pressures."

That means some Asian leaders may sacrifice long term economic stability in favor of short term measures that make their people happy. This happens when it's an election year or there's social strife. There's a bit of that going around Asia these days.

The S & P report says, the potential negative effects from the United States housing and economic problems has the potential to reduce Asian exports, lead to a decline in foreign direct investment and lower corporate profits." At the same time, increased demand for food, energy, and workers combined with a booming demand for everything is increasing inflation.

Asian governments will need to decide whether it's more important to hold down inflation or encourage economic growth. People aren't happy when they're hungry. There are rice shortages all over Asia. In pursuit of quick fixes, some governments are introducing extensive and market-distorting food price controls and export rations. They could pay for that later.

So where should you invest? It depends. Here's the latest breakdown country by country.

Indonesia: experiencing fiscal pressure due to rapidly rising fuel subsidies

Vietnam: inflation of more than 20 percent. Concerns about economic stability here

Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and Taiwan: governments seem hesitant to take many risks because of political situations

India: seems to be somewhat insulated from the slowdown in the United States. The Indian economy is pretty closed and doesn't trade much with the US.

China and Hong Kong: much better chances of economic reform and policy change here to address economic concerns. Chinese leaders aren't as swayed by popular opinion and their people are used to letting the government take care of things. Besides, it's also the region of greatest growth and demand in Asia. This region presents the best investment environment at this time.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Vegas Tips


By Kent Ninomiya
So you watched the movie “21” and you think you’re going to strike it rich at the blackjack tables in Vegas. Well, before you empty your meager checking account and cash in those bonds Grandma gave you when you were a kid, there are a few things you should know. Here is the reality of casino blackjack from someone who played the game for 20 years. Benefit from my trial and error as I dispel the myths about card counting and slap you around with the cold, hard hand of reality. So listen up! Here’s the top 10 rules of blackjack.
The first rule of blackjack is: the house always wins. Let me repeat that. That house always wins! There would not be big gleaming casinos if they were losing money. They would not be handing out free buffets and cheap rooms if they were losing money. You would not still be living in your parent’s basement if it was that easy to take their money. You would be there right now living the high life. That said, there are ways to minimize the house edge, win you a little green, and have some fun while you do it. Read on.
The second rule of blackjack is: there is no such thing as luck. Human nature makes us remember our victories far more than our defeats. We tell our friends with great pride about that time we split aces twice and won three times our bet while neglecting to mention that you left the table penniless a few minutes later. If you are to win at blackjack you must take all the emotion out of the game. Don’t get too happy when you win. Don’t get too upset when you lose. It’s about the odds and the long run. If you play the odds you will do OK in the long run. If you make exceptions to the odds because you are feeling lucky, you will most likely lose in the long run.
The third rule of blackjack is: you must learn perfect play. Perfect play is exactly that. When you are dealt a hand in blackjack you must make decisions with the information in front of you. You know what your two cards are and one of the dealer’s cards. This determines whether you stand, hit, double down or split. For every combination of your first two cards and the dealer’s show card there is a predetermined action you should take. This is called perfect play and is well documented. You can find out what to do on the internet. Check out this link for a perfect play chart. You can even buy one of these credit card sized charts at the casino gift shop. The casinos don’t mind if you look at the card at the table while you play. They realize that even if you use perfect play they will still win slightly more than half the hands. That’s the way the game is set up and in the long run that means most people will eventually lose. They key is to work the odds in your favor and quit while you are ahead. More on that later but first you must master perfect play.
Perfect play can be difficult sometimes because it forces you to do some things that seem stupid. This includes hitting on a 16 or standing on a 12 in some cases. Just know that perfect play was determined by statistical research by people a lot smarter than you. They sat through all those lousy math classes so you didn’t have to. So trust them. Asking whether you would rather lose by busting or having the dealer beat you is like asking whether you would rather have crabs or the clap. Neither sounds good. They key is to avoid both as much as possible.
It feels bad to hit on 16 and bust. What you need to realize is a loss is a loss. Whether you busted hitting on 16 or had a 20 and got beat when the dealer drew to 21, it’s the same thing. By hitting on 16 when the dealer shows a 10 you at least have a chance of winning. The odds say the dealer will almost always beat a 16 when showing a 10 so you might as well hit. Always stick to perfect play and the odds. Leave emotion out of blackjack.
The fourth rule of blackjack is: pick the right table. It may seem like blackjack is blackjack but it’s not. Blackjack is like women. The games are different and the differences can be a bitch. Different casinos have different rules. Different tables in the same casino have different rules. Walk around and find one that benefits you. Written right on the table is whether the dealer must hit or stand on soft 17. This is important. A soft 17 is when the dealer has an ace counting as 11 instead of 1 to help their hand add up to 17. When the dealer hits on soft 17 it improves their odds of winning. Look for a table where the dealer stands on soft 17.
There is a little known casino rule called “surrender.” It isn’t advertised so you need to ask the dealer if they offer “surrender.” Essentially you can “surrender” your hand after the first two cards and get half your bet back. This is great when you have a 15 or 16 and the dealer is showing a 10 or ace. It’s far better to lose half your bet than hit on a 15 or 16. Surrender will save you a lot of money in the long run so use it.
Blackjack can be played with a single deck, double deck or in a shoe with 6 or 8 decks. There are advantages and disadvantages to all of them. In single and double deck blackjacks pay 6 to 5 odds instead of 3 to 2. Also, you can only double down on 10 or 11, not soft hands with an ace. This limits your ability to capitalize on good hands. Most importantly, the cards are dealt face down making card counting much more difficult. If you are going to count cards you need a table that deals from a shoe. Also, avoid those tables with automatic shufflers that mix up the cards with every hand. They make counting useless.
The fifth rule of blackjack is: if you are going to count cards, do it right. If you think about it, counting cards isn’t really illegal. You are only using your brilliant mind and information that is right there in front of you. The problem is casinos are poor sports and don’t like to lose money. So like all poor sports they pout and take their ball home so you can’t play anymore. Actually they’ll ask you to stop playing blackjack and invite you to play roulette or craps or something else that will take your money. If they think you are a chronic card counter they will ban you from their casino and get all the other casinos to ban you too. They probably wont get their goons to rough you up, but you never know. They don’t like losing money in Vegas. The reality though is you probably aren’t big time enough to even be noticed. To win big money you must risk big money. Do you really want to hock your X-box and I-pod to put up the cash? I didn’t think so. Keep bets small and you will probably fly under the radar.
Basic card counting involves looking at every card dealt. You start the shoe with a count of 0. For every low card of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 you add +1. For every high card of 10, jack, queen, king or ace you subtract -1. You ignore the middle cards of 7, 8 and 9.
The sixth rule of blackjack is: bet without emotion. If you play perfectly the house will win slightly more than half the hands. Varying your bet with the count will tilt those odds in your favor. If you are playing at a table with a shoe you should change your bet when the count reaches +9 or -9. You should have a consistent stake bet, say $10 at a table with a $5 bet minimum. Play every hand at $10 until the count reaches +9 or -9. At +9 double your bet. At -9 cut your bet in half. You may want to press your bet even harder if you are at the end of the shoe and you have a big plus count. The reason for this is simple. When you have a big plus count the shoe is full of 10’s and aces. This improves your odds of getting a blackjack or big hand with your first two cards. A minus count means there are more small cards in the shoe. That makes it more likely you will need to take more cards and lose.
Despite what you see in the movies, big plus shoes don’t come around that often. Sometimes you will play all night and never get one. You must be patient. If you confront a big negative shoe get up and go to the bathroom or switch tables. Don’t play when the odds are stacked against you.
The seventh rule of blackjack is: if you count cards, don’t get caught. The pit boss is watching you like you used to watch Jessica Simpson in the “these boots were made for walking” video. When you are counting cards imagine you are checking out a hot chick but don’t want her to think you are a pervert. Look at the cards but don’t stare. Look around once in a while so it seems like you’re not paying attention. Don’t move your lips or hold up your fingers while you count. I’ve actually seen people do that. Find a system that works for you that isn’t obvious. It could be how you place your foot or stack your chips. Just don’t make it obvious. Cameras are everywhere in casinos and there are lots of people watching you.
The eighth rule of blackjack is: avoid gimmicks. A lot of casinos offer gimmick blackjack games. Examples include side bets for different combinations of cards or the option to play two hands and switch your cards. Don’t fall for any of these. These games would not exist if the casinos lost money on them. They are unpredictable and impossible to figure out the new odds. Stick to standard blackjack where you have some control over the odds.
The ninth rule of blackjack is: don’t play when you are not at your best. You need to be sharp to play blackjack. If you are tired, hungry or drunk you will make mistakes. They offer those free drinks at the tables for a reason. The drunker you are the more you lose. Save your binging for later. Tell your buddies to leave you alone when you play. Nothing makes you lose count faster than a friend who wants to chat. When you are at the table play. Do nothing else. Also, beware the temptation to increase your bet just so you can “break even.” More money is lost trying to “break even” than at any other time at the table. Betting more means you can lose more. Slow and steady wins the race. If you are down don’t make it worse by losing more.
The tenth rule of blackjack is: know when to quit. The casinos wont bother you as long as you are not walking away with thousands of dollars. If you play right you could make a few hundred a session. Don’t rub it in their face. It’s time to cash out and take a walk. Go to another casino. Play another day. Don’t get noticed. That will invite the security goons to eye you on the overhead video camera. Trust me, you don’t want that. Most importantly, don’t play with money that you can’t afford to lose. This is gambling after all. You can follow all the rules and still drop all your cash. You can play like a jackass and still win. However, odds are you will do much better if you follow all the rules without emotion. Since there is no such thing as luck, the odds are all you have. Oh… by the way… good luck!
*** Kent Ninomiya ***

Monday, April 21, 2008

Satori - Kent Ninomiya

by Kent Ninomiya

Satori is a beautifully simple yet infinitely elusive concept. This is especially true for the western mind that deals primarily in the physical realm. Yet I would argue that it is the western mind that is especially in need of attaining satori. Defining satori is as evasive as satori itself. Ask many experts on the matter and you will get many answers. None of these answers will tell you how to attain satori or even what to look for. There in lies the difficulty for the western mind that is used to following pre printed instructions.

My personal definition of satori is enlightenment attained by a seemingly unrelated event. One of the guiding principles of zen is that the harder you try to be enlightened the less enlightened you are. Only through purging yourself of desire can you attain all you seek. I know... it messes with your mind. A famous story about satori involves a monk who meditated for decades in isolation but never achieved enlightenment. One day he was sweeping his walkway when the sound of a pebble hitting a rock suddenly gave him satori. He then understood everything. All that meditating did nothing. The sound of the pebble broke through all barriers to his understanding. I know... it messes with your mind.

The word literally means "understanding" in Japanese. It's been said that satori is the reason Zen exists. Without satori there would be no Zen. I agree. However, you don't have to understand Zen or Buddhism or even enlightenment to appreciate this.

Here is a western way to look at it. Just imagine working diligently for many years on a task only to achieve modest success. This could be your career or sports or a relationship or anything. Suddenly one moment something unexpected happens where you suddenly realize you were looking at it all the wrong way. One moment before you knew nothing. Now you see the big picture clear as day and wonder why you never saw it before. That is satori. It is an unanticipated turning point we can all relate to. It is a gift of awareness and understanding.

*** Kent Ninomiya ***

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Oil Culture Collapse - Kent Ninomiya

by Kent Ninomiya

We are in trouble. Really, really big trouble. Monster trouble that few of us think much about. It's all about oil. That stuff that used to shoot out of the ground is getting harder and harder to find, pump and refine while the demand increases by the day. Most people glaze over when the subject is raised. Our "oil culture" has been around all our lives. Since the 1970's we've been inundated with stories of gloom and doom, yet the oil still flows. Sure we pay more for gas and we gripe about it, but we still fill up our gas guzzling SUV's and drive around the block to buy a quart of milk. It's like we are in a societal state of denial. Denial of what you ask? Denial of these simple truths.

1) There is only so much oil in the ground. We are getting better and better at extracting it but someday it will run out.
2) Demand is exploding. Not just in the west but also China and India with more than 2 billion people between them. This isn't just gasoline for our cars. It impacts airplanes, electricity production and manufactured goods. Any economist will tell you that when you have a dwindling supply and hefty demand you get higher prices.
3) With the rising price of oil comes the rising price of everything. Just about every person on Earth needs oil to get anywhere. Just about every product you consume got to you on a truck, train or plane using oil. Just about every service you require needs oil to provide it. That means everything gets more expensive when oil gets more expensive.

Now visualize a world where you just can't get your hands on any oil at any price. That means prices of everything will skyrocket. People wont be able to get to work to make money to buy things that wont get to them anyway because there is no oil to ship the stuff around the world. Economies will collapse followed by societies, cultures and civilizations. Is this an exaggeration? Not really.

So how did we get in such a mess? About a century ago a relatively small group of people saw big bucks in oil. It improved human standard of living in ways we couldn't imagine before. Suddenly we could travel around the world, get exotic items from just about anywhere, and do away with countless age old limitations involving distance. A steady stream of cheap gas fed our habit until it was all we knew. Growing up in the suburbs, getting your own car as a teenager, hitting the highway as an expression of freedom... all became part of our culture. It is now who we are. Asking us to give it up is asking us to deny who we are.

We've known for a long time that oil pollutes the planet and that we would someday run out. Yet we have done remarkably little about that. Technology for wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal and other alternative energy sources have been around longer than oil in some cases. So why have we not done more to switch to those sources as we face our own demise with the end of oil? Conspiracy theorists will tell you the oil barons squashed alternative fuel technology to stay in business. While this may be somewhat true, it doesn't entirely explain how an entire species would buy into an oil habit that everyone agrees we will eventually have to go cold turkey with.

The answer is that oil was easy. Running out of it and the damage it did to Earth was a future generation's problem. We just didn't care enough to do something about it. Well... now we are starting to. We might not run out of oil in our lifetimes but we will certainly suffer for it. The pain we feel now paying higher prices is just the beginning. The strain on our currency, supply chain and way of life will become more and more pronounced. Larger and larger chunks of our household budgets will go straight to the oil industry. Care free days of driving to the store to buy the latest fashions or stock up at the supermarket are disappearing. What will happen to a society that defines itself by what it does with its cars? We shall see.

*** Kent Ninomiya ***

Friday, April 11, 2008

Currency Karma - Kent Ninomiya


Right now is arguably the worst time in memory for Americans to travel overseas. The dollar is at record lows against many currencies around the world. Gone are the days when you could travel to “cheap” countries where the mighty dollar pounded the “monopoly money” of an economically weaker nation. America’s bully currency is now itself being bullied. The humiliation is humbling. I recently had to change an airline ticket in Europe. Even though I originally purchased the ticket in dollars, the airline demanded I pay the change fee in a more stable currency… Polish zloty. Business in third world countries often takes place in “hard” currencies instead of the inflation prone local money. Until now the dollar was the gold standard of hard currency. No more. I spoke to a friend of mine in Africa the other day who says no one wants dollars anymore. I remember back in the early 1980’s when a dollar was worth ten francs and nearly equal to the British pound. Americans ran off to Italy then Greece then Turkey chasing cheaper and cheaper sunspots where they could lounge on the beach while their dollars stretched further and further. If you believe in karma then this is just America getting payback. The euro came and did away with the lire and drachma. Southern Europe was no longer cheap. Our economy is now in the toilet and the United States is suddenly the travel bargain for international tourists, not the other way around. Could the day be coming when we have droves of Europeans talking loudly in our restaurants demanding to know why we don’t speak French or Hungarian or Swedish? If you believe in karma, it would only be fair. *** Kent Ninomiya